The only way to make a profit from betting on horses is to find the occasional runner who is undervalued by other bettors. It is not easy and it does not happen often. While they, the other people who bet on the races, that is, they can let one go a little higher in the odds than it should be, the stamina, the amount taken out by the track, will take over and still won. It will not be a profitable bet.
The only way to beat crowd skill and track takeaway is to find the best way to pick winners that works for you. There is no one best way, but they all amount to the same thing. You have to learn how to do a morning line and then keep an eye out for horses that are more likely than you think they should be and bet on them.
This is how sports books and racing books do it. They have professionals who can accurately judge each broker’s chances of winning and impose slightly lower odds on them to make a profit. For example, if they think that a horse has a chance in four of winning, they will give it a 5-2 chance. That means, if they’re right, you can’t even balance on the horse. In other words, they will always win.
The betting public does much the same, although they can be swayed by the public handicappers promoting a particular horse in a race. That is good news for you. One of the best ways to find an overlap when choosing winners is to read the horse racing news and find a horse that the disadvantaged public and writers are promoting. Watch the race closely and see if they got it right.
All the pressure on the horse will reduce the odds and you may be able to find another runner in the race who is an overlap. This usually happens in big races if it is going to happen. The problem, of course, is that astute bettors often look to these races for that very reason. Races like the Kentucky Derby, for example, offer good opportunities to find overlaps, and the pools are so large that big players can bet large amounts of money without changing the odds much.
That’s why they play those races more and look forward to those opportunities. When I see a horse being promoted in one of those races, I usually look for another runner in the race who can beat him and I watch the odds closely. With two minutes to go, if I think the horse is an overlap, I pounce and place my bet. However, I only do this after having carefully hindered the race using all the factors and information at my disposal.
