When I have run-of-the-mill races like claim races and subsidy races, I often look for horses that are not in the race to win. By looking at the races the horse has run, a handicap can often spot the horse training or exercising. Trainers regularly use racing to condition their horses and work to improve their racing ability by working on their bad habits.
For example, if a horse has been stubborn in racing and refuses to slow down, a trainer can put a strong, armored jockey on the horse with express instructions to slow down and make it speed up. Sometimes you will see how the rider pushes those horses back. The fight often puts the horse out of the race. What may at first seem like a jockey “throwing” a race is really just a jockey following instructions to teach the horse a racing lesson.
There are trainers who condition their horses by competing with them. The horse may be coming back from a break and needs some “tensioners,” as they are called, to regain the fire and muscle tone needed to win races. However, in a major stakes race, you will rarely see a horse running for training or conditioning. Most of the horses in a classic race are in it to win it. That means you should take each of them seriously, even if it seems like a stretch.
If the trainer is a good trainer who knows his trade, he will only put a horse in a race because he knows he has a chance. If a horse is properly bred for distance and surface and appears to be improving, a trainer may enter the runner over his head because he suspects the horse has a big run in him. There have been some notable upsets in Grade 1 racing. There have even been upsets in each of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
While anything is possible on any horse, Triple Crown and Breeder’s Cup races are logical places to look for an unlikely bet. Handicapped horses with a good trainer and jockey are a reasonable proposition in a Grade 1 race, especially if you have another reason to back such a horse. If the price is right, don’t be afraid to bet against the favorite with a long shot that could upset the field.
